The Fight for the White House: The Beast's Tale

*****

The Beast

Ages ago, when the world was still very young, the First Debate came and shook the world. I am old now and my time has almost come, but I seem to recall that moment nevertheless. I remember how shocked I was at the coming of The Beast, that thick-headed and bullying Animal of Many Insults, that roared its way into the very pits of  palaver with its huge mouth gaping hotly and hungrily.

Ah yes, I remember it clearly. But where is the Avatar of Awesomeness now, I ask myself? Where now is the Golem of Greatness?

It has been so long, so long. I grow weary when I even think about it, the passing of all this time. And truly, The Beast itself is no longer; the fire has died in its eyes. It is alive, surely, but it has become a mere shade. Its shape is but the hint of fog in the distance, and its whisper not enough to startle a mouse.

________

Hmm, no. Trump has not faded away quite yet. But I do believe that Thursday's second Republican debate showed why he will. And I also believe that it showed why the GOP should nevertheless be quite cautious about getting its hopes up too high.

A while back, I wrote that Trump's appeal to Republican voters did not seem to be that he trumpeted all conservative things in an all-conservative way. Instead, I said, he appealed to them because he was loud,  forceful and promised to actually act on his stated beliefs. Those beliefs might not be the gospel truth according to some Republicans, but that wasn't the issue: the issue was getting things done. And there was Trump, proclaiming as strongly as he could that he was the man to do it. He was, he himself stated, the non-politician to sweep all those weakling politicians out of the temple.

Except, of course, that his promises became hollower the more he repeated them.

You cannot, for example, promise to deport 11 million aliens just like that. To do so would require (a) lots and lotsa government money, and (b) lots and lotsa government officials and (c) lots and lotsa of buses, too. Oh, and you'd also have to tag the cretins in advance, so that you can catch them if they have the temerity to make a run for it before getting thrown out of the country (you never know with cretins, right?).

In short, it would require the very sort of federal government (an almost all-encompassing police state) that absolutely no Republican voter would ever think of condoning. It's not just undoable; its very contemplation is absurd.

So, where does that leave Trump's message? Well, where it ought to be. At first glance it's delicious. It's nice and shiny and it's got da muscle. But when you hear it for the second time, and then the third, you begin to realise you're watching ice cream in the desert sun.

_________

So, no Trump? He seemed up for a while; now he seems down. 

Good news for the GOP, surely?

Nope, not really.

Just before the second debate, CNN released a poll showing that about 32% of likely Republican voters supported Trump. 19% supported Ben Carson. A rather measly 3% were prepared to support Carly Fiorina.

Just after the debate, CNN released another poll. Trump's support had dropped to 24%. Carson had gone down to 14%. But Fiorina had escalated; she was up to 15%.

Now, what does this show? In terms of individual politicians, not much. You might think that the poll clearly confirms my own opinions, as stated above, but it doesn't really. If anything, the poll confirms that some cracks are appearing in the Trump monolith, but not more than that.

What it does show, though, is this.

Before the second debate, a total of 54% of likely voters supported a non-politician. After the second debate, that figure had not really changed at all: it was 53%. 

It has been remarked upon by some how wildly the polls have swung recently. I would say the exact opposite: look at what has remained the same, and there you should find a fairly accurate measure of the voters' mood.

The voters aren't all too committed to either Trump, Carson or Fiorina. They might like some of them or even all of them, but in the end, they will happily hop from one to the other. Their goal is not to support the individual; their goal is to oppose the establishment. And they're doing it in spades.

Good news form the GOP? No, not really.

________

And now the night is falling. It has been so long, so long. Tell me, where is the boy to bring me my tea? Where is he?

Ah, there you are, Trumpsy. Yes, put it done there. A sugar, please, that's a good boy.

Tell me, Trumpsy, have you heard the tale of The Beast? Let me tell you the story, for it's a good tale. 

The Fight for the White House: Religious Liberty Revisited

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The Trumpster? Who cares? Here's The Kimster!

A little while ago, I wrote about the Odgaards.

Now, we suddenly have Kim Davis, a county clerk in Kentucky who has been jailed because she refuses to issue marriage licenses to gay couples (indeed, to all couples, because these couples would include gay ones).

And it seems that, in doing so, Davis has rather confounded a lot of people on the issue of what is euphemistically known as "religious liberty".

This is from an article posted on The Washington Post's website:

"Kentucky county clerk Kim ­Davis’s assertion that she answers to a higher authority won her no reprieve from a federal judge this week. But the question of whether people must obey the law when they say it violates their religious beliefs is being debated in state legislatures and the nation’s courts and has become a galvanizing issue in the Republican presidential nomination campaign."

Well yes, perhaps in a case such as the Odgaards'. But surely not here, right?

After all, the first time you read about this case, you might well think that it's not about what Davis can or cannot believe. You may well think that it's just about her duty, as a county clerk, to issue marriage licenses in accordance with the law of the state of Kentucky.

And yes, it is true that Davis is and remains perfectly free to have objections against same-sex marriages, and that issuing licenses to gay couples in no way infringes that liberty. She could hand out licenses to gay couples all day long, and still go home happily believing in all the horrors that God has in store for gays tying the knot. Not a single license she issues need have any influence whatsoever on that belief.

It is also true that Davis, believing (as it seems she does) that gays must not to be allowed to marry, finds herself in a position (that of county clerk) where she can actually act on this belief. She is, in other words, in a position where she can superimpose her will on those who think differently. Such action has nothing whatsoever to do with "liberty"; such action constitutes the exact opposite.   

So, in this line of reasoning, you might easily reach the conclusion that this is a fairly simple matter.

However, there are at least two aspects involved which could change your mind. Let me briefly address both of them.  

The first is this: Davis has been incarcerated. And that, frankly, might be considered odd.

Davis happens to be the county clerk, and as such she has a duty when it comes to issuing licenses. It is questionable whether the authority to issue such licenses can be taken from her and, against her will, bestowed on others (specifically her deputies). However, the judge ruling on the case clearly thought so: in fact, he ordered that her deputies can and must now issue licenses without her consent. And that's exactly what happened: after the judge gave his ruling, Davis's deputies began issuing licenses to gay couples.

The problem with this, though, is that it renders Davis's own non-compliance almost moot. After all, if the judge's view is correct, same-sex couples wanting to get married in the county can get (and some have by now indeed gotten) their licenses, and it doesn't really matter what Davis herself thinks on the issue.

But the question then rises: why jail her? If such a step cannot be seen as a reasonable and necessary measure to protect the rights of gays, what other reasons might there be? 

Well, the first answer to this is very simple: Davis was jailed because she refuses to abide by court orders to comply with the law. She is therefore in contempt of court. As such, she could be fined, but the judge (rightly, I would assume) thought that doing so would not be a sufficient inducement. The alternative is imprisonment.

From a purely legal perspective, the judge's decision makes total sense; from any other perspective, however, not so much. If fines should be eschewed because they wouldn't work, the same can be said of incarceration. It was clear from the outset that this would not force Davis to start issuing licenses to gay couples, and so it has turned out.

The second way to answer the question would be to point out that she refuses to do (part of) her job. That's true, but since when does such a situation justify jailing the person involved? It may well justify other steps - it might ultimately justify dismissing an employee, for example, or (as in Davis's case) a process of impeachment (*) - but incarceration? Surely not. 

The third way to answer the question, however, is even worse. That would be to argue that Davis should be jailed because her religious beliefs conflict with the law of Kentucky (and, indeed, with federal law). That, however, implies that her imprisonment is a direct consequence of her belief that gays should not be allowed to marry and, as such, could be considered an acceptable infringement of her "religious liberty".

So jailing Davis is, to my mind, problematic. It effectively makes her a martyr, and that is unfortunate, given the (unappealing) particulars of her stance. 

So much for the first aspect. The second one is this.

During the legal proceedings so far, she has argued that one of her main objections is the fact that her name is on the licenses that are issued. As such, she argues that she is being forced to in some way "condone" gay marriages. To my mind, this argument should fail simply by virtue of the fact that the mention of her name does not imply any personal endorsement or condonement (it is there because Kentucky law requires the license to be issued by a county clerk and Davis happens to be that clerk). However, I could well be wrong, and in that case, the argument becomes quite clever and potentially hugely complicating. Dealing with it would mean that you would have to investigate what changing the documents would actually imply. How hard would it be, for example, to change them so that they only mention "the clerk', and not the clerk's name? Is such a document still legal? If it isn't, what steps could be taken to legalise it? Before you know it, you are up to your chin in a skew of legal tangles, each and every one of which takes you further away from what you thought the case is actually about.   

These two aspects make this case much more complex than it at first seems. Ultimately, I think the writers of the article quoted above are quite right. Issues such as these are galvanising. Moreover, they are often also just damned difficult.

Meanwhile, various candidates for the Republican nomination have come out to support Davis. These include people such as Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and (rather surprisingly) Rand Paul. None of them seem to appreciate the complexities of the case; all of them appear, instead, to want to capitalise on what is a fairly difficult situation. Gosh - who would have thought?   

*****

ADDENDUM: The above article was written on Sunday, September 6th. Today, August 8th, Davis was released from prison. The judge stated that he was satisfied that the County Clerk's Office was complying with the law and issuing licenses to everyone who requested them (including the original gay couple who has been turned away by Davis). If, the judge stated, Davis were to interfere in any way with the issuing of such licenses, he would take further steps.  

If nothing else, the judge's action today has shown that putting Davis in jail in the first place was not such a good idea.

_______

(*) Why impeachment? Because Davis is not an ordinary employee of the state of Kentucky. Instead, she's an elected offical. As such, she can't be fired; she can, however, be impeached. 

The Fight for the White House: Trump's Up

*****

We are legion!

A few days ago, I wrote and briefly posted a short article on Jeb Bush. It wasn't quite right. I then replaced it with a somewhat longer article dealing with Trump (or, rather, on how he might lose the Republican primary race). And that wasn't quite right either.

Hmm. Why am I struggling?

I've given it a bit of thought, and I think the simple reason is that, like many others, I wasn't really sure why Trump is doing so well, or why Bush is doing so badly.

In the last few days, though, I do feel that some things have become a little clearer.

So let me try again.

________

The first Republican debate was held in the beginning of August. Just about everybody expected it to be, in some shape or form, a Trump show. And of course,  that's just what it was.

However, I, for one, hadn't expected Trump to do so badly. I thought then (and still do) that he preformed horrendously. I don't believe he gave a single answer (or made a single comment) which was in any way factually correct or, if it was, which was in any way appealing. 

And yet, from that moment on, the Trump machine has kept rolling. His popularity has kept growing. To the surprise of many, his favourability rating have increased tremendously. He has, quite simply, gone from strength to strength.

Before the August debate, very few pundits were talking Trump seriously at all. By now, everybody is. Most will still tell you that Trump has little or no chance of actually winning the nomination, but that's a different story. Trump is in this race, he's ahead, and he's not going anywhere soon. He's not some amusing distraction; he's real.

But why? He's not a true conservative at all. He's not Cruz, fighting for "religious liberty". He's not Santorum, with his extraordinarily odd views on abortion and women's rights. He's not Huckabee; he's not Perry. He's not Walker or Bush. In fact, in many ways, he shouldn't really be in this race at all. If you look at what the GOP has, in the years since Reagan, become, you realise that Trump just doesn't fit at all.

Yes, he is a loud-mouthed populist, but that just doesn't seem to explain all that much. As I said earlier, voters might at first find that refreshing, but after a little while, they'll realise it isn't enough. Once they start listening to what he says, and not how he says it, they'll scratch their heads and walk away.

Except that they're not doing that. Why?

Well, I'm beginning to think that the current views the GOP has - on conservatism, on religion and on just about every other "holy" aspect of Republicanism - aren't quite right. I'm beginning to think that the GOP may, in fact, be barking up the wrong tree. And I feel that Trump is making this apparent.

And it's not just Trump, either. You might wish to add Ben Carson to the mix, or Carly Fiorina.

Take, for example, a recent Iowa poll. Trump came in at 23%. But so did Carson. And Fiorina came third with a very respectably 10%. What does that mean? Well, it simply means that no less than 56% of those polled did not  support a Republican politician; instead, they supported a non-politician. And just to be clear, the people polled were "likely Republican caucus voters". The people polled were, essentially, the Republican electorate in that state.  

And the majority of them did not back their own politicians.

In another poll, again conducted in Iowa recently, 75% of likely Republican voters also said that they didn't like  the way Republicans were handling Congress. Republicans politicians hold majorities in both the House and the Senate, but three out of four likely Republican voters just don't like what they're doing.

Now of course these are just polls; they're more or less spur-of-the-moment things. In six months time, in a year's time, all the polls will have changed.

Nevertheless, what these two polls show is that the GOP is doing a terrible job. There's no other way to put it.  And what they also show is that voters - Republican voters - aren't all too happy to hop onto any of the readily available "conservative" bandwagons available. They're not rushing to any of the "real" conservative candidates out there, no matter how vehemently those candidates all profess to pray at the conservative altar. Instead, these voters are reaching out to outsiders, to people like the brash Trump, or, alternatively, the seemingly mild-mannered Carson.

And the reason for this is, it seems to me,  ultimately simple. The current conservative message of the GOP might well be of some importance, but it's not what voters are looking for. What voters are looking for, is someone who will Get Things Done. It doesn't matter if those things are all honest-to-God truly conservative; it doesn't matter if they are all religiously conformist; it doesn't even matter if taxes will never be raised again or if the size of the federal government is drastically reduced. All these things are secondary (or tertiary) at best. 

What matters first and foremost is that Things Get Done. What matters is Thomas Jefferson, and Reagan, and Eisenhower. And not so much Walker, or Perry, or Cruz. 

Republican voters are looking for a real and strong answer to the Democratic challenge. What they're not looking for is some sort of distorted and distasteful version of their own message, thrown in their face in the name of endless Grover Norquist tax pledges, or an ultimately suffocating concept of "religious liberty". 

To advance a conservative message, you don't have to be a radical conservative. In fact, radical conservatism is not advancing anything; it is, instead, self-destructive.

If the GOP doesn't recognise this, and if their politicians do not recognise this, they are in very real trouble indeed. They're going to get trumped big time.

Having said this, I do realise that what I'm saying goes against the grain of just about every other pundit's comments out there. 

Hmm. Perhaps that's why I was struggling.